My CNBC Million Dollar Contest Portfolio Update

Contest Players - 543,433
My Rank - 7472 (Top 2%)

Portfolio Value - $1,282,388.39 up 28.2% in 5 weeks.

As the midway point approaches for the CNBC Million Dollar portfolio contest, I have to take some comfort in being ranked in the top 2% of the contest. I was in the top 1% last week with my portfolio up 35%, but I lost almost 7% on my third trip holding FMT stock.

If I can maintain my current pace, there is no reason why I can't be a contender for the top 20 portfolios with a few good picks. Therefore i thought it would be a good time to start a little journal highlighting my championship run to the million dollar paycheck.

The contest rules make it difficult to employ any real trading strategies, but the fun is participating with many players executing all-in positions and experiencing the large percentage swings that this risky strategy produces. If this was real money, being able to produce percentage returns in the double digits is enough to make any hedge fund jealous, and getting recognition by having your name listed in the top player's list is valuable exposure, so my mission will be considered a success if i can just get my name on the list.

The top players in the contest have been able to take advantage of earnings events and small priced high percentage movers to get to their rank levels and this seems to be the only way to get to the top but let me make a couple of suggestions to players.

First, concentrate on beating your own rank each day rather than the leaders and strive to make each trade a profitable one even if it is just 1-2 percent a day. You will watch your rank jump over 10-20 thousand people with such moves. If in the next 25 days of the contest, you can average 2% per day you should get into the top 1% of players in the contest. Then from there all you will need is a few 10-15% movers to have a shot at the finals. Stocks that are about to report earnings are "your best chances" for these types of moves. So if you employ this strategy (buy the day before earnings) you will have a chance at not only winning the a seat in the finals but you might get that little $10,000 weekly prize.

Below are two tables showing what your portfolio will be worth assuming these daily percentage factors. The first table is 25 days of 2% a day to get a portfolio value that will place you in the top 1 %.

# Days 1,000,000.00
1 2.0% 1,020,000.00
2 2.0% 1,040,400.00
3 2.0% 1,061,208.00
4 2.0% 1,082,432.16
5 2.0% 1,104,080.80
6 2.0% 1,126,162.42
7 2.0% 1,148,685.67
8 2.0% 1,171,659.38
9 2.0% 1,195,092.57
10 2.0% 1,218,994.42
11 2.0% 1,243,374.31
12 2.0% 1,268,241.79
13 2.0% 1,293,606.63
14 2.0% 1,319,478.76
15 2.0% 1,345,868.34
16 2.0% 1,372,785.71
17 2.0% 1,400,241.42
18 2.0% 1,428,246.25
19 2.0% 1,456,811.17
20 2.0% 1,485,947.40
21 2.0% 1,515,666.34
22 2.0% 1,545,979.67
23 2.0% 1,576,899.26
24 2.0% 1,608,437.25
25 2.0% 1,640,605.99

The second table assumes the same with 5 10% daily moves the last 5 days. If this happens you would be in the top 10 players for a shot at the finals.

# Days 1,000,000.00
1 2.0% 1,020,000.00
2 2.0% 1,040,400.00
3 2.0% 1,061,208.00
4 2.0% 1,082,432.16
5 2.0% 1,104,080.80
6 2.0% 1,126,162.42
7 2.0% 1,148,685.67
8 2.0% 1,171,659.38
9 2.0% 1,195,092.57
10 2.0% 1,218,994.42
11 2.0% 1,243,374.31
12 2.0% 1,268,241.79
13 2.0% 1,293,606.63
14 2.0% 1,319,478.76
15 2.0% 1,345,868.34
16 2.0% 1,372,785.71
17 2.0% 1,400,241.42
18 2.0% 1,428,246.25
19 2.0% 1,456,811.17
20 2.0% 1,485,947.40
21 10.0% 1,634,542.14
22 10.0% 1,797,996.35
23 10.0% 1,977,795.98
24 10.0% 2,175,575.58
25 10.0% 2,393,133.14

I will update my progress so you can get a measure for where you might need to be to get to my ranking, so check back.

Top players in the contest as of 4/5/2007 according to CNBC contest blog.

Name Portfolio Value
1. Parker Robinson $2,790,103.27
2. Deborah Taft 2,588,876.30
3. Ken Guillory 2,496,077.04
4. Chad Mazeika 2,433,347.81
5. Evan Scherer 2,300,624.35
6. Emmanuel Nogueira 2,269,175.73
7. James Kraber 2,257,242.52
8. George Lee 2,252,185.92
9. Joe Dondero 2,251,956.57
10. Barry Dressler 2,201,790.02
11. Chris Humphrey 2,158,211.77
12. Rob Bender 2,144,584.95
13. Maheshwari Gupta 2,104,565.91
14. Mark Dallas 2,103,758.36
15. Sacey Platte 2,097,165.63
16. Bob Stolzenburg 2,090,453.50
17. Jaems Meisner 2,083,660.01
18. Philip McKibbin 2,070,054.44
19. Doua Vang 2,069,450.59
20. William Garrett 2,067,786.42

Most actives as of the close on 4/4:
Gammon Lake Resources: Appears on the list for the first time, and the gold and silver producer named a new CEO on 4/3.
CMGI
Revlon
Crystallex International
Conexant
Sirius
Fremont General
Rio Narcea Gold Mines
Vonage
Oilsands Quest

Widely helds as of the close on 4/4:
CMGI with 4,191,717,487 shares held, down from Tuesday.
Revlon 2,084,897,505 shares held, up from Tuesday.
Conexant: 1,585,725,595 shares held, up from Tuesday.
Sirius: 1,424,673,762 shares held, up from Tuesday.
Crystallex International: 1,328,385,264 shares held, down from Tuesday.
Fremont General: 970,521,373 shares held replacing Vonage in the list.