Wednesday, November 21, 2007

What is in Santa Claus' stock portfolio this year? Nintendo and Apple probably

The Holiday season looks like it might be rough for retailers given that the average American family will probably be spending a week's paycheck for gas just to get to Wallmart. So what will Santa Claus be busy lugging on his carbon emission free sled? One of the CNET editor's top holiday gift picks, the Nintendo Wii.

The first thing that all investors should consider before buying stock in Nintendo (OTC:NTDOY), Japan's interactive game manufacturer, is that it trades as an ADR and is quoted as a pink sheet over the counter stock. Unlike other pink sheet stocks this stock is much more stable than the average penny stock. Another thing that investors should take notice of is that through all the market turmoil in the last year, this stock has more than doubled. Starting at about $32 per share at the beginning of 2007, it has risen to as high as $78 and has like many other stocks dropped almost 20 percent in the last couple of weeks with the market correction. Unlike some toy manufacturers whose stocks have suffered losses this year due to product recalls as a result of well publicized Chinese lead paint stories, Nintendo's got game, literally.

This meteoric performance for Nintendo stock began with the launch of their Wii product and sales have been booming as evidenced by retailer reports of shortages of the game console. Sound like an Apple story? Sure does, and speaking of Apple expect them to struggle keeping products on the shelf as gadget hungry consumers gobble of their technological marvels after the Thanksgiving weekend also.

These market corrections are a trader's paradise and an investor's opportunity. Just when it seems like there is nothing but bad news and extended bearishness, the market surprises and comes roaring back. I have seen this happen many times in the past and the end of year seasonal upside phenomenon will probably not disappoint again.

This market will probably stabilize over the course of the next couple of weeks paving the way for a Santa Claus rally at the end of the year. Of course if the average investor or the market gets naughty, then they both can expect to get Iceland's early versions of Santa Claus and a big fat potato to claim as your year end gift deduction or tax loss, whatever the case may be.

I have increased holdings over the last few days with the correction and have reduced my short positions. I currently have a position in Apple but not in Nintendo as of this post. If the market has more weakness over the next couple of days, I will be adding to my select retail positions as well as initiating a position in Nintendo.

I do not own the Nintendo Wii.