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Timing of the January Effect

History has taught us that the first week of January many times can give us an indication of how the market will perform for the year. This is known as the January Effect

There are many schools of thought behind this investment theory but probably the main engine for this type of forecasting logic, is that fund managers and investors take new positions after clearing out other positions at the end of the prior year for tax loss and performance reporting purposes.

For purposes of this post, we will take a look at a daily chart of the ETF, (DIA), which tracks the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The basic indicators shown are the 50 and 200 Day Moving Averages, along with a linear regression channel set at 1 and 2 standard deviations, and finally a trend line drawn from the November low. The reason for looking at the ETF is that we can get a better sense of volume levels as displayed along the bottom.

As displayed in the chart, we can see the Dow is at a major resistance level as marked at 90.82, Representing the December high and January 1st, yesterday’s action. This resistance is also marked by the upper band of the one standard deviation linear regression channel.

Another healthy sign is that the Dow broke through the 50 Day Moving Average from the November low and this is a level we have not seen for the last several months.

We are at key 30 day resistance level and today’s market action at one point gave up half the prior day’s gains. Certainly if we can take out that level in the next three days, than the January effect theory would be forecasting a healthy 2009 for investors.

What I believe makes this year different for this January barometer from a timing perspective, is the massacre selloff we experienced in the last few months as well as the realization this bear market has lasted almost 14 months which is a little more than the average time for bear markets but certainly a better opportunity to invest for a higher market later this year .

I see this market rising over the next few weeks as weaker earnings seem to have already been priced in the market and the new administration takes office giving us a clearer picture of the plan to get our economy moving again.

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Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

CNBC Portfolio Challenge First Day Rankings

Following the first day of trading results, the top player rankings for the 2008 CNBC Million Portfolio Challenge were first posted early Teusday evening.

Before I start bragging about my first day success, let me make a some observations that players should consider in the early going.

First the top player, had a first day gain of 15.5%. Assuming he had the total bonus points of $17,000.00, then his gain for the day was around 13.8%.

The numbers below assume full credit of bonus points:

The player ranked number six assuming full bonus credits, has a gain of 10.7%.

The player ranked number ten has a gain of 10.2%.

The player ranked number twenty five has a gain of 9.4%.

Now my first day success was a total return of 7.4% giving a rank of number 784 and a very comfortable positioning for the first day of trading.






Now with only 700 people ahead of me and no doubt half of them with similar portfolios in that list, cutting it down to maybe half of those, I could vault into the top rankings any day now assuming I stay positive and no mistakes.

At least its fun to have a shot at the first weeks prize just so long as its the Yankees that I will see at the World Series.

But I can have much more fun with the grand prize money.

We will see.

2008 CNBC contest begins with challenges

The 2008 CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge was open for trading yesterday and unlike last year, I hope to pay more attention considering the fact that I ranked in the top 2% (see April 2007 post)for much of the early going but I was distracted with other items near the end of the contest. However, just like last year's contest there were similar issues that can ignite the same kind of controversy that helped some of last year's winners.

First and most important, there were a few contestants in the leaders list with more than one portfolio which is contrary to the new rules suggesting that only one player per account can win and participate. It will be interesting to see how the leaderboard evolves here in the first few days.

The contest's administrators also decided to cancel all currency trading on the first day probably due to system overloads and players' inabilities to seamlessly log-in and execute trades for most of the trading day yesterday. I was not happy with that late development because I had a few profitable currency trades in the first couple of hours and I couldnt close some of them in a timely manner to capitalize on a great first day of trading. The currency trading portion of the contest will be very interesting since this adds a 24 hour, Monday through Friday, trading window that will make it harder for most participants to have an edge unless they have no other commitments and do not require sleep in their daily existance.

I will update this blog daily and give readers some help along the way, so in case you win from any of the picks and screens highlighted here, feel free to give me a plug!